Hi all! Just joined the Bulwark Plus today and listening in tonight for the first time. I just listened to Charlie’s podcast today with Tom Nichols which was excellent as always. At the end of the podcast you were talking about a second trump term and how he would likely obliterate NATO and other security agreements as well, such as with South Korea. How would he do that? Can he do it unilaterally, or would he need consent from Congress?? Thanks guys!
Thanks for providing us with much needed insight into the Ukraine invasion. I’ll be tuning in to the livestream tonight (my first of many I hope). If you have time can the panel discuss what exactly SWIFT sanctions would mean and are they a “nuclear option” as I’ve seen them referred to. Also, are there any practical things the average American can do to help the Ukrainian people? Thanks again for all you do.
A question for the panel: What do you make of the suggestion from Angus Roxburgh (at the link below, description of him below) that sanctions target not (only) oligarchs but especially the Russian electeds? Excerpt from his essay in the Guardian (at the link!) immediately below.
***The only real value in punishing oligarchs is that it makes the west feel and look good because it is doing something. Economic sanctions – cancelling the Nordstream II gas pipeline, or restricting Russia’s access to the Swift system – may have a greater effect, but they may also rebound on us in the form of higher energy prices.
However, there is a much bolder and more imaginative approach. Russia’s ruling class – the members of the Duma, the Senate, the presidential council, the top echelons of the security and defence services, top state television employees – is several thousands strong. These men (and some women) draft, rubber-stamp, promote and carry out Putin’s decisions. Some of them also – unlike the oligarchs – actually advise him.
Being a member of the Duma or Senate is a pretty cushy number – you are well-paid, you can make an occasional speech if you wish, but you are basically there to vote for the Kremlin’s decisions, and, above all, you can extort as many bribes as you can cope with. (For this reason they are detested by a majority of Russians.) Members of the presidential council are civil servants, essential for the preparation of legislation. The security services play crucial roles in executing Putin’s vision. And TV propagandists spread disinformation.
These are the people to target – because when several thousand of the people Putin actually depends on begin to feel the consequences of his policies in their personal lives, there will be a groundswell of discontent.
Most of these people love to travel to Europe and the US. They educate their children here. They own properties here. The members of the Russian elite, their families and children, love to swan around on yachts, ski slopes and fine hotels in the west, posting pictures of themselves on Instagram. If they are denied visas to travel to the west – if they are effectively imprisoned in Russia – it will not take long for the discontent to permeate the entire political class. The message to them will be clear: if you want to enjoy your western lifestyles, you need a new leader who respects western values; until then, you’re banned.
The added value of this approach is that, unlike some economic sanctions, it will not harm ordinary Russians, in fact it will delight them.***
Angus Roxburgh is a former BBC Moscow correspondent and consultant to the Kremlin. He is the author of The Strongman, Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia
joined today to hear such a dignified cast talk today about european democracy and american democracy that is so in danger..from england , and a bit of left of centre person so might feel a little out of place, but just here to listen .....signed in today, because i think the situation is so dire, that i need some experienced commentary which i think the bulwark will deliver :)
Giving the history of invasions and the prospect of this turning into a war and how long they can last. What happens if Trump wins back the presidency?
one last question...is there any margin to divide the chinese away from russia...i think if china could be made to condemn the current sitaution in ukraine, that might be a severe blow to russia and putin?
just for another question...there is the additional interest of turkey? would perhaps erdogan close the bosphorus as th eukraine leadership ask for? as being a dicactor he could just do it? especially when turkey has ties in NATO?
A question for Tom Nichols: you said on today's podcast that Putin is acting irrationally. In one sense I understand what you are saying and I agree. The guy's nuts. On the other hand, he can get Ukraine, and he knows it, because no one is going to counter the invasion militarily. Is that not rational? Thank you very much.
Q for Dr Nichols. I was re-reading Henry Kissinger's 'nuclear weapons and foreign policy' recently. Part of the argument was that the war fighting doctrine was so limited (everything escalated to strategic nukes v quick) that it limited the ways of actually dealing with or deterring the Soviets. Is that still true in terms of deterring or changing the behaviour of the Russians?
Putin Chooses Forever War [2/24/22]
Hi all! Just joined the Bulwark Plus today and listening in tonight for the first time. I just listened to Charlie’s podcast today with Tom Nichols which was excellent as always. At the end of the podcast you were talking about a second trump term and how he would likely obliterate NATO and other security agreements as well, such as with South Korea. How would he do that? Can he do it unilaterally, or would he need consent from Congress?? Thanks guys!
Hi folks,
Thanks for providing us with much needed insight into the Ukraine invasion. I’ll be tuning in to the livestream tonight (my first of many I hope). If you have time can the panel discuss what exactly SWIFT sanctions would mean and are they a “nuclear option” as I’ve seen them referred to. Also, are there any practical things the average American can do to help the Ukrainian people? Thanks again for all you do.
This was superb, thanks guys. Sure beats sitting there waiting, hoping you’ll get to squeeze a word in edgewise on MSNBC
A question for the panel: What do you make of the suggestion from Angus Roxburgh (at the link below, description of him below) that sanctions target not (only) oligarchs but especially the Russian electeds? Excerpt from his essay in the Guardian (at the link!) immediately below.
***The only real value in punishing oligarchs is that it makes the west feel and look good because it is doing something. Economic sanctions – cancelling the Nordstream II gas pipeline, or restricting Russia’s access to the Swift system – may have a greater effect, but they may also rebound on us in the form of higher energy prices.
However, there is a much bolder and more imaginative approach. Russia’s ruling class – the members of the Duma, the Senate, the presidential council, the top echelons of the security and defence services, top state television employees – is several thousands strong. These men (and some women) draft, rubber-stamp, promote and carry out Putin’s decisions. Some of them also – unlike the oligarchs – actually advise him.
Being a member of the Duma or Senate is a pretty cushy number – you are well-paid, you can make an occasional speech if you wish, but you are basically there to vote for the Kremlin’s decisions, and, above all, you can extort as many bribes as you can cope with. (For this reason they are detested by a majority of Russians.) Members of the presidential council are civil servants, essential for the preparation of legislation. The security services play crucial roles in executing Putin’s vision. And TV propagandists spread disinformation.
These are the people to target – because when several thousand of the people Putin actually depends on begin to feel the consequences of his policies in their personal lives, there will be a groundswell of discontent.
Most of these people love to travel to Europe and the US. They educate their children here. They own properties here. The members of the Russian elite, their families and children, love to swan around on yachts, ski slopes and fine hotels in the west, posting pictures of themselves on Instagram. If they are denied visas to travel to the west – if they are effectively imprisoned in Russia – it will not take long for the discontent to permeate the entire political class. The message to them will be clear: if you want to enjoy your western lifestyles, you need a new leader who respects western values; until then, you’re banned.
The added value of this approach is that, unlike some economic sanctions, it will not harm ordinary Russians, in fact it will delight them.***
.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/23/obsession-sanctions-oligarchs-putin-hurt-russian-leader-ukraine
Angus Roxburgh is a former BBC Moscow correspondent and consultant to the Kremlin. He is the author of The Strongman, Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia
Tom Nichols is one of the brightest talking heads on TV. Wish he would run for office but his intelligence would be wasted in that body.
joined today to hear such a dignified cast talk today about european democracy and american democracy that is so in danger..from england , and a bit of left of centre person so might feel a little out of place, but just here to listen .....signed in today, because i think the situation is so dire, that i need some experienced commentary which i think the bulwark will deliver :)
This was awesome guys, thanks so much and I came away with more optimism...
Putin is very direct. H doesn't play Chess. Just as Bill said he plays Poker. he is very good at Poker
Putin is very direct. Ho doesn't play Chess. Just as Bill said he plays Poker. he is very good at Poker
I believe NATO is a Treaty. One of the last to be approved by Congress. Therefore Congress has to approve a departure from NATO.
Giving the history of invasions and the prospect of this turning into a war and how long they can last. What happens if Trump wins back the presidency?
What should this mean for the US military posture in Europe. Do we permanently position forces in Poland? Reinstitute Reforger?
one last question...is there any margin to divide the chinese away from russia...i think if china could be made to condemn the current sitaution in ukraine, that might be a severe blow to russia and putin?
just for another question...there is the additional interest of turkey? would perhaps erdogan close the bosphorus as th eukraine leadership ask for? as being a dicactor he could just do it? especially when turkey has ties in NATO?
A question for Tom Nichols: you said on today's podcast that Putin is acting irrationally. In one sense I understand what you are saying and I agree. The guy's nuts. On the other hand, he can get Ukraine, and he knows it, because no one is going to counter the invasion militarily. Is that not rational? Thank you very much.
Q for Dr Nichols. I was re-reading Henry Kissinger's 'nuclear weapons and foreign policy' recently. Part of the argument was that the war fighting doctrine was so limited (everything escalated to strategic nukes v quick) that it limited the ways of actually dealing with or deterring the Soviets. Is that still true in terms of deterring or changing the behaviour of the Russians?